Bitcoin has plunged more than $40k in just six weeks—despite no obvious fundamental catalyst beyond the unfortunate reality that market structure has flipped sharply negative (ETF outflows, the Coinbase discount, structural selling, poorly positioned longs getting liquidated, etc.).
The observtion about vol-of-vol behavior reverting to pre-ETF patterns is fasinating. It really does suggest we might be witnessing an actual regime shift rather than just another dip. If implied volatility starts behaving more like 2021-2022 again, that could mean we're heading back to Bitcoin's wild macro-sensitive days.
Excellent article. I believe that one of reasons for the volatility to come back is because the OTC desks have been drained. They are the main drivers providing liquidity to kill the volatility. Check out this link, and I look forward to your thoughts:
The problem is much simpler. Bitcoin is no different than the high beta stocks. If there are more opportunities to make money somewhere else, Bitcoin continues to under perform.
sir, can u put it simply for users that are not familiar with IV and options please
Past it into AI and ask for help, bud.
where for market maker to go first, max pain reality for MM’s is imho to neutralise short traders
The observtion about vol-of-vol behavior reverting to pre-ETF patterns is fasinating. It really does suggest we might be witnessing an actual regime shift rather than just another dip. If implied volatility starts behaving more like 2021-2022 again, that could mean we're heading back to Bitcoin's wild macro-sensitive days.
Excellent nuance and depth Jeff. Keep up your great work.
Excellent article. I believe that one of reasons for the volatility to come back is because the OTC desks have been drained. They are the main drivers providing liquidity to kill the volatility. Check out this link, and I look forward to your thoughts:
https://cryptoquant.com/analytics/query/683567991c54fe5f2d3dd6a8
Yes though Coinbase currently moving wallets so need to check again after CQ picks up new wallets
I think the recent news about Coinbase moving wallets was exchange reserves, not OTC desks.
This is the link for exchange reserves:
https://cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/chart/exchange-flows/exchange-reserve
Excellent. Thank you.
Nice read ! Thx
Great article!
Great article. Yes the pain is the the upside, only a few understand ..
The problem is much simpler. Bitcoin is no different than the high beta stocks. If there are more opportunities to make money somewhere else, Bitcoin continues to under perform.