Where do we go from here?

A Cautious Case for Bitcoin in the Near Term

April 21 marks a notable turning point in markets—not because of what’s happening, but because of what isn’t. For the first time in this recent wave of market stress, we’re seeing a broad risk-off selloff absent any new escalation in the U.S.-China tariff narrative. This lack of headline-driven panic suggests something deeper and more structural: the market is now pricing in downside as its base case, not just in response to new shocks. That’s a marked shift in tone.

On the geopolitical front, we’re seeing further signs of fragmentation without a clear vision to replace the old order. Donald Trump’s ambiguous stance on bilateralism—still lacking any articulated strategic framework—is increasingly being met with skepticism. In a significant development, Japan publicly expressed concern over recent moves, breaking from its traditional playbook of quiet diplomacy and face-saving alignment. For a nation that rarely broadcasts discomfort, this signals rising tensions in global economic coordination and a potential realignment in the Asia-Pacific region.

Against this backdrop of global uncertainty, Bitcoin’s behavior has been disappointing relative to expectations. From January 31 through today, GLD (Gold ETF) is up 38% (vs SPX), while Bitcoin is flat relative to equities—with both BTC and broad risk assets down roughly 15%. For an asset touted as "digital gold" and a hedge against monetary disorder, Bitcoin has yet to show meaningful safe-haven characteristics. It is not acting as a store of value when it arguably should. By my calculations, GLD alone has experienced ~$12Bn in inflows since January 31st.

The DXY (Dollar Index) has declined over 10% since Jan 31, while the 10-year Treasury yield remains range-bound between 4.3% and 4.5%. Gold has responded to this macro environment with both strength and increasing volatility—GLD’s 10-day volatility now surpasses BTC’s (26 vs. 22). Importantly, this volatility in gold has been primarily from upside moves. That’s a strong vote of confidence from the market and a bad signal for Bitcoin, which traditionally thrives on volatility as part of its appeal to younger, long-horizon investors.

The irony is stark: Bitcoin’s maturing narrative—cemented in part by the launch of spot ETFs—may have backfired in the short term. The EO Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, positioned as a watershed moment, may in hindsight be the worst-timed development for Bitcoin. Rather than inviting sovereign interest or signaling monetary competition, it appears to have blunted Bitcoin’s volatility-driven allure while failing to deliver on the “safe-haven” thesis. Bitcoin, for now, is being boxed in—neither growth volatility, nor monetary hedge.

Volatility is Bitcoin’s narrative engine, especially among younger investors who equate price movement with potential. Without it, Bitcoin risks falling into a narrative no man’s land—neither explosive risk-on asset nor flight-to-safety store of value. Meanwhile, gold is clearly winning the macro moment.

Bottom line: I expect broader markets to drift lower from here, driven less by headlines and more by a shift in baseline sentiment. In that environment, Bitcoin remains vulnerable. Its correlation to risk assets is still high, and it hasn’t shown the independence or reflexivity that gold now clearly possesses. In the near term, the case for caution is growing—not because Bitcoin has failed, but because it’s being miscast in the current environment. That said, a decisive shift—such as a coordinated global liquidity injection (that is specifically not due to USD depreciation) or a surprise pivot by Trump “giving up”—could quickly reignite Bitcoin’s appeal as a high-volatility, asymmetric asset with exposure to a long-duration monetary debasement thesis. The question then is twofold: how much more pain must markets endure before that liquidity catalyst emerges, and what will it take to reorient the “chaos hedge” narrative away from gold and back toward Bitcoin? The answer may lie not in Bitcoin’s fundamentals, but in the storytelling battle still being fought across portfolios, headlines, and generations.